Iran Election – What Does It Portend?
The coverage of the election in Iran has been breathtaking, but also raises some troubling questions for international traders. Let’s start with the obvious conclusion. Any question about the totalitarian nature of the regime has been settled. Like every other group in power not in a democratic country, President Mahmoud Ahmadienejad and his supporters have done whatever they thought necessary to stay in power. This has clearly included trumped up charges and military action. Today’s headlines are full of stories about Iranian employees of the British embassy being tried for actions they supposedly took to foment the civil unrest.
Perhaps most perplexing about the coverage is the unwillingness of the international press to call a spade a space. Ahmadienejad and the ruling Council have blamed the Americans and the British for the unrest. Why not point out this is a typical action by all dictators – blame the outsiders. It is also typical of the way politics is played in the Middle East. To one degree or another, most of the regimes in the Middle East have always blamed someone else, typically Israel, for all their ills. If you complain about outsiders, you hope to divert the attention of your citizens from the shortcomings of the government. Will it work here? It has in most other instances in the Middle East. The Palestine issue remains after 60 years and the unwillingness of the citizens of the region to work together is self-evident but pre-dates the establishment of Israel. There seems little question the military crackdown in Iran has stopped the street rallies. However, the question international traders should ask is given that Iran is willing to try diplomatic employees, what does that tell you about the steps authoritarian regimes will take if their very existence is threatened from the inside by an election?
Membership in the World Trade Organization should be earned, not given simply because you run a country. On the other hand, time and again, we see proof that having a country engaged as a member of the nations of the world somehow leads it to eventually be a somewhat better world citizen. The question now is how will the WTO respond to Iran’s actions. So far, no international laws appear to have been broken, although it seems likely a rigged election occurred, no matter how hard the Iranians try to deny it. Iran obviously is proceeding with its nuclear activity. How will the lambasting the Iranian image has taken worldwide change how the government proceeds? Some expect it will, but we are dealing with a totalitarian regime. In the end, engaging it on acceptable terms would be wise, but can we? What other international obligations will Iran ignore?
